Publications

With relentless uncertainty on all sides and a rapid succession of events, the European Union has embraced strategic foresight as a way to improve policymaking with tools for long-term planning and crisis prevention. To move from purely reactive responses to anticipatory preparedness, foresight should be embedded in geopolitical strategy and connected to the highest levels of political authority.

An image of formal restraint at the Cold War’s end, this photograph captures Bush and Gorbachev signing START I in a moment shaped as much by distance as by agreement. What looks like détente now reads as the beginning of a far more uncertain nuclear order.

Europe’s rearmament is accelerating, but not evenly. While states on the EU and NATO eastern flank are driving sharp increases in defence spending, others are moving more slowly or even cutting back. The result is a more militarised but increasingly imbalanced Europe, with the EU now under pressure to use its budget and industrial tools to distribute the burden more strategically.

The 21st century human experience is one of relentless flux and systemic upheaval. Swept along by the inertia of political and moral forces we neither control nor fully grasp, an awareness of our collective impotence blurs into deeply personal feelings of powerlessness. Yet European unity – as a political mission, but above all a moral principle – holds the promise of both meaning and belonging.

Macron’s latest address on France’s national nuclear deterrence is not a mere tradition, but a thoughtful adaptation to the new strategic context. With American protection more uncertain, the Russian threat more explicit, and key arms control and non-proliferation arrangements under increasing strain, the European dimension of France’s nuclear capability is taking clearer shape through concrete operational cooperation.

As tensions in the Gulf once again destabilise global energy markets, Europe faces renewed questions about its exposure to external shocks. Our Energy Fellow Thijs Van de Graaf answers Four BIG Questions about what the current shock could mean for Europe’s energy bills, security, and the pace of its transition away from imported fossil fuels.

As the 'rules-based' environment erodes, interdependence is increasingly wielded as leverage – through sanctions, export controls, regulatory barriers, and supply-chain pressure. Companies are responding by professionalising geopolitical judgement inside corporate governance, while drawing more heavily on think tanks and international institutions to stress-test disruptive scenarios.

In this new era of great power politics, the challenge for the EU and its member states is not only to spend more money on defence, but also to use the budgetary levers at their disposal with greater flexibility and strategic foresight. A shared understanding of Europe’s defence needs, a capacity for common borrowing, and legitimate political authority should all play a part in steering these budgetary powers into action.

With his Arctic land-grab threat, Trump touched the sovereignty nerve, uniting the continent across the political spectrum. Meanwhile, public opinion reacted with outrage – and fresh support for a stronger EU. Now, political leaders must embrace this momentum, plotting a steady course of action to protect Europeans from authoritarian America's intimidation next time around.

Reducing Europe’s dependence on space technologies that are essential to both economic activity and continental security is now widely acknowledged as a priority. Last autumn saw a constellation of positive signals, including a record funding commitment to the European Space Agency. But will Europe orchestrate its space ambitions in concert – or risk letting parallel national plans dilute them?

Today, farmers use tractors to block roads and dump heaps of manure in public spaces to influence and impress decision-makers. Fifty-five years ago, some of them brought cows to the fourth floor of the Council of the European Economic Community – and with them, a useful dose of reality in the corridors of power.

In this episode, our hosts hand over the mic to Alejandra Ancheita, a Mexican human rights lawyer and the Executive Director of ProDESC. With her work, she supports workers, Indigenous and rural communities in their struggles against structural inequality and corporate power.

Faced with hard economic reality and a ‘Special Relationship’ rapidly turning sour, the UK may be preparing to turn the page of the costly Brexit psychodrama – but the window of opportunity to ‘reset’ relations will not stay open forever. As the next UK–EU summit approaches, the British government should move quickly and decisively as a matter of strategic necessity.

In what they have termed their ‘home region’, the Trump administration has been keen to use geography to ‘make America great again’. What began by rebaptising the Gulf of Mexico quickly escalated into threats of annexation and a military intervention in Venezuela which confirmed that the so-called ‘Donroe’ Doctrine is more than mere bluster.

EU-India ties have often looked promising on paper yet fallen short in practice – but a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape is forcing both sides to rethink what the partnership is really for. Will last month's trade breakthrough at the EU-India summit in Delhi produce a genuine reset, or another cycle of high expectations and limited delivery?

In the wake of a noteworthy week in Davos, one repercussion is clear. With three years left in Emperor Donald’s reign, the thought that the rules-based order might be salvageable ‘on the other side’ no longer enjoys support in Europe. Mark Carney may have charted a new strategic direction - but for now, Mark Rutte's flattery and diplomacy remain essential survival skills.

It has become blatantly obvious that Donald Trump’s intention to acquire Greenland is no laughing matter. Europe must get serious: we have no other option than to calmly, rapidly and independently plan and conduct security and military support – in accordance with Denmark and Greenland’s wishes – to avert a major crisis.

The European Council’s decision to postpone ratification of the EU–Mercosur Partnership Agreement by one month may seem inconsequential, considering its negotiation has now spanned more than a quarter of a century. Yet the stakes could not be higher, with any further delay likely to sink the historic deal – and further undermine the rules-based international order in the process.

The US National Security Strategy has dealt two harsh blows to Europe: a strategic abandonment and a civilizational insult. Yet among EU policymakers there is no sign of an understanding of the challenge, let alone a counterstrategy. Europe must begin by liberating itself from the narrative shackles of a transatlantic order which died this year – and claim our place in the multipolar world as a polity worth defending.

As the year draws to a close, our team have compiled their personal literary highlights from the past twelve months for your consideration – a bookshelf replete with bold ideas, human stories and the complexities which erupt at the intersection of the two. Season's greetings from BIG!

For the European Union, sanctions have been the go-to coercive policy in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and their reach has now extended to Central Asia and the Caucasus, where exports to Russia have been pushed into indirect channels via third countries and banking systems. Yet these sanctions loopholes make use of the same trade corridors which increasingly form a part of Europe's strategic interests in the region.

Myanmar is a nation trapped between democratic aspirations, ethnic rebel forces controlling vast territories and a military junta determined to cling to power. In the midst of turmoil, its citizens search for meaning and a sense of direction wherever they can get it.

In this episode of our podcast series, we hand over the mic to Argentine writer and journalist Gabriela Cabezón Cámara. One of the most powerful literary voices in Latin America today, she reflects on Europe through the lens of history, language and lived experience.   

As Trump takes aim at Europe, alleging ‘decay’ and ‘civilizational erasure’, Mark Gilbert counters that both its cheerleaders and detractors, American and European, have created a false dichotomy in their characterizations. The European project is both more complex and subtle than either the Euro-boosters or sceptics would have us believe. Europe’s journey still has a long way to go.

Across Central and Eastern Europe, political parties are now divided into opposing pro-EU and pro-Russia camps, subverting the well-established left–right cleavage that has organized politics since the fall of communism. Meanwhile, a shifting geopolitical reality is driving a securitization of politics that in turn is further fuelling polarization. The EU must tread carefully.