Brussels///Institute///for///Geopolitics

Copenhagen hosted two major European summits this week, following drone incursions into Danish airspace which pushed security even higher up the leaders' agenda. BIG asks one of the country’s leading experts on NATO and European security for his perspective.

Europe is learning that American gas, too, can be turned into a tool of leverage. True energy independence lies not in choosing a new supplier, but in choosing a new path.

BIG continues to nurture academic partnerships with some of Europe's leading university institutions - and we're pleased to announce a new collaboration with Sciences Po.

The era in which the EU’s core economic competencies could be exercised in isolation from wider geostrategic concerns is over - and institutional decision-making has thus far failed to integrate the security considerations which now suffuse commercial policy. A European Economic Security Council would provide the 'strategic lens' necessary for the Union to exercise economic statecraft more effectively and coherently.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) is proud to welcome Ireland as its tenth EU state member, further broadening the Institute’s European base and reinforcing its mission to advance strategic thinking in an era of geopolitical upheaval.

As its seventh summit approaches, the EPC continues to defy definition – and prove its value, despite the doubters. Our latest paper assesses how this geopolitical forum has matured, how it could develop in future, and what the EPC’s “staying power” means for the other actors on the stage – particularly the EU.

As its seventh summit approaches, the EPC continues to defy definition – and prove its value, despite the doubters. Where next for this nascent pan-European forum? Join us for an insightful discussion.

The European continent is overlaid with a patchwork of memberships of different international and regional institutions: NATO, the OSCE, the Council of Europe, the EU and, the most recent addition, the European Political Community (EPC). Three years after its launch in Prague, and ahead of its seventh summit in Copenhagen on 2 October 2025, the format has overcome early doubts and criticism and established itself as an essential piece of the political and diplomatic conversation.

Arranged like chess pieces on the marble floor, Europe’s leaders stand literally shoulder to shoulder, flanking the leader of the free world. Trump, carefully positioned below the halo of his seal of office, the lynchpin and host of the extraordinary multilateral meeting, looks like he means business.

In the latest episode of Handing Over the Mic, we hear from Vera Songwe. Renowned economist and global leader in development, finance and policy, in 2017 she made history as the first woman to lead the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) at the rank of Under Secretary General. Forbes recognized Songwe as one of Africa’s 50 most powerful women in 2020.

For the first time in decades, Europeans must be prepared for 'imposed wars', rather than the 'chosen' ones of the 1990s and 2000s. Recent months have shown how fragile Europe’s position is. Yet there are promising traces of agency, not least in the Coalition of the Willing.

On 10 September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen kicked off the EU political season with her State of the Union address. But other than some stark language, did her win-win approach mask the harder geopolitical realities facing Europe?

The world’s superpowers have embraced digital tech as part of their geopolitical arsenal - and for the US, nothing less than global digital domination will do. Can Europe rise to the challenge?

In discussions about ‘Europe in space’, what is really meant? Day after day, the media, think tanks and political discourse imbue the concept with new ambitions from earth orbits to moon landings, even beyond, often without clarifying what concrete entities, policies, or actors are being referred to.

In a closed-door expert panel held at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics on 17 July, participants discussed Europe’s evolving relationship with China, highlighting potential risks and openings for pragmatic engagement. 

In the lead-up to what is expected to be a pivotal EU-China leaders' summit in Beijing, the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) is convening a closed-door expert panel to take stock of Europe’s evolving China strategy. The conversation comes at a critical geopolitical juncture, as US-China tensions escalate, and Europe finds itself caught in a volatile economic and strategic triangle.

On 24 July, the European Union’s two presidents, António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, set out for Beijing to meet China’s leadership. Even though the summit marks the 50^th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic relations, the mood is far from festive.

The idea of walking from Europe to China may seem improbable in an age of high-speed trains and digital connectivity, but it is possible to take a path on foot from Rome to Kashgar, China, which Google Maps estimates would take over 200 days. The idea is not a new one, of course. The ancient Silk Road was a constellation of shifting trade corridors, with access dependent on imperial stability, local alliances and border controls.

The EU–China Summit on 24 July 2025 marks fifty years of diplomatic relations between the two powers, and should not be seen as a mere dialogue between two economic and political actors, but also as a meeting between two of the world’s oldest extant civilizations.

Since Trump’s return to the White House, only six months ago, with his increasingly belligerent attitude towards the old continent, EU leaders now question the role of the US as a trustworthy ally. The shift in European public perception of the US has been equally swift, according to the latest Eurobarometer survey.

The upcoming EU–China Summit comes at a pivotal time for both actors. If the EU is to make the leap to strategic autonomy, it needs China to recognize it as a pole in a multipolar world. If China is to survive the American confrontation, it needs access to the European market. For China, America’s decline is an opportunity, for Europe, a risk – but for both it may have come too early. Is Europe ready to command great power recognition?

Hunched forward, with mirrored posture, Trump and Zelensky huddle deep in conversation. It is one of the most politically significant photographs of the year, not least because it captures an impromptu tête-à-tête during Pope Francis’s funeral in May 2025.

Wang Dan, a leading figure in the student-led democracy movement of 1989, was nominated three times for the Nobel Peace Prize and was China’s ‘Most Wanted’ student leader after the military crackdown. He was sentenced in 1991 to four years in prison, released in 1993, then re-arrested. In 1996, he was sentenced to eleven years in prison for ‘conspiring to overthrow the government’.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) is proud to welcome Luxembourg as its ninth EU member state, further broadening the Institute’s European base and reinforcing its mission to advance strategic thinking in an era of geopolitical turmoil. 

Born in Beirut, Lebanon, Tarek Atoui combines social, political and historical realities with music and technology in various forms in his art. As an artist and composer, he engineers complex original musical instruments, used in events ranging from large-scale collaborative performances to concerts and educational workshops.

At BIG we have read some great books these past few months. As part of our summer newsletter, we are excited to pass our recommendations on to you.

Climate and energy, long treated as technical domains of cooperation, are now inseparable from the geopolitics of war and strategic competition. Energy, minerals and clean technology sit at the heart of global power. This report sets out the strategic dilemmas the EU faces ahead of COP 30 in Belém, Brazil in November 2025.

Russia has come to perceive Europe as an irrelevant and despicable actor, a mere US vassal, at least with regard to security. Moscow has also got the message that for Europeans, Russia is an enemy now and will remain so for the long term.

As the situation in Gaza deteriorates, the invocation of the Genocide Convention has become not only a legal battle but deeply divisive politically. The 1948 UN Convention, which 153 nation states have signed up to or ratified, requires that all signatories commit to prevent and punish acts of genocide whether during a war or in peacetime. As the judicial organs of the UN, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) prosecutes states and the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutes individuals for serious international crimes, such as genocide.

The Cold War was framed as ‘liberty versus equality’, a narrative strife between two modern values, sisters from the French Revolution’s 1789 motto ‘liberté, égalité, fraternité’. Today's clash pits conservative, religious nationalism against progressive, secular individualism.

Despite the turbulence of global politics, there is no need to abandon all hope for a peaceful and just future. It is, however, necessary to embed that hope within a more resilient narrative about the Union.

Technological choices have become tools of geopolitical influence, and calls for European strategic digital autonomy are multiplying. However, it is an ambition that has so far failed to materialize, hindered by structural dependencies and a lack of political coordination. Is it possible that the continent responsible for so many scientific inventions is incapable of responding to the challenges of US digital imperialism and China’s technological ascent?

Hubert Védrine (b. 1947) is a French diplomat and political advisor who was the diplomatic advisor and spokesperson for President François Mitterrand in 1989. He was at the heart of France’s response to the collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the question of German reunification. Védrine helped formulate Mitterrand’s cautious approach: while acknowledging the inevitability of reunification, he sought to ensure it would proceed within a European framework that preserved the Franco-German equilibrium and European stability. 

Joachim Bitterlich (b. 1948) is a German diplomat and foreign policy expert. In 1989, he served as foreign and security policy advisor to Chancellor Helmut Kohl. During the historic months leading to and following the fall of the Berlin Wall, Bitterlich played a crucial, behind-the-scenes role in shaping West Germany’s strategic response. He was deeply involved in managing diplomatic communications with key partners including France, NATO allies and the Soviet Union. 

In this episode of Handing Over the Mic, we speak with Louma Salame, director of the Brussels-based Boghossian Foundation since 2016. Her career includes leadership of the Louvre Abu Dhabi (as part of the Paris team), Mathaf in Doha, and the Institut du Monde Arabe in Paris.

Ahead of the Global Gateway Forum 2025 on 9-10 October, the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, Clingendael Institute and the Egmont Institute co-organised a working lunch on 11 June in Brussels as part of an ongoing project to help shape Europe’s strategic partnerships at a time of mounting geopolitical tensions.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics hosted a closed-door roundtable on 6 June 2025 bringing together senior officials and experts from EU institutions, NATO, national governments, and industry to reflect on Europe’s evolving approach to defence financing and keeping Europeans safe in an increasingly hostile world.

This discussion paper, ‘Budgetary Politics in Times of War’, was prepared as input for a roundtable at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics on 6 June 2025. The event brought together representatives from national defence, foreign affairs and security departments, EU institutions, NATO and the private sector.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics is delighted to announce Cecilia Bonefeld-Dahl has been elected (5 June 2025) as the new Vice-Chair of the Board by its members.  

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) welcomed Clément Beaune, French High Commissioner for Strategy and Planning, for the Brussels leg of his presentation of the new policy note "How to Finance Rearmament and Our Other Priorities by 2030"

In conversation with Luuk van Middelaar at BIG’s event to mark Europe Day and the 75^th anniversary of the signing of the Schuman Declaration, Herman Van Rompuy, the first full-time President of the European Council, reflected on his career in European politics.

Join us on 9 May at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics for an open house reception to celebrate Europe Day, which this year also marks the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration.

Political anniversaries do more than return the past to the present, they also provide a theatre for action today, for quiet diplomacy or the orchestration of personal chemistry.

Well beyond the EU’s external borders and scattered across the globe, overseas territories, protectorates and dependencies act as Europe’s strategic outposts. In an era of renewed great power rivalry, these distant regions are no longer peripheral concerns but increasingly critical frontline assets. Their location in geopolitical hotspots has made them key nodes for trade routes, maritime security and regional military presence.

Since 1989, Poland has been a devotee of Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ thesis, but no longer. How and why did it last for so long?

Russia’s annual military parade and Europe Day collide on 9 May 2025 at the height of tensions over US relations and the future world order.

In the face of the return of imperialism, European strategic autonomy is obviously a matter of means and resources. It is also a major intellectual issue for our schools and universities across Europe.

Twelve weeks into Trump’s second term, it is time to acknowledge that the US president has broken with the post-1945 international order with the aim of creating a new one.

The Baltic seabed is home to a web of subsea cables carrying vital telecommunications traffic between EU and NATO states, and linking Russia to its exclave, Kaliningrad. Vital data flows for the financial world, the internet and the military traverse the sea floor, which is also criss-crossed by power cables and gas pipelines. Consequently, the former ‘sea of peace’ has become a focal point of geostrategic rivalry in the wake of a sequence of attacks and disruptions to its critical infrastructure.

If US policies continue to be turbulent and unpredictable, and if Europe fails to strengthen the international role of the euro, China could seize the moment.

Join us on Europe Day (9 May) at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics for a conversation with Herman Van Rompuy, together with BIG’s founding Director Luuk van Middelaar on the topic of ‘Who speaks for Europe.’

Albena Dimitrova is a Bulgarian-born author who relocated to France in 1989. She worked in economics, studying the privatization processes in former Eastern Bloc countries and the associated corruption. Her novel Nous dînerons en français (‘We will dine in French’) portrays the decline of a totalitarian regime through the eyes of a young woman.

André Wilkens is a German social entrepreneur and author. Born in East Berlin in 1963, he is a founding member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and co-founder of the Initiative Offene Gesellschaft.

It seems like the right moment to re-read Halford Mackinder, a British geographer, politician and influential thinker, whom many regard as the father of geopolitics. Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919), Mackinder’s most famous book, is surprisingly contemporary in content.

In this episode, hosts Christine Mhundwa and Elisa Díaz Gras are joined by Dipo Faloyin, author of Africa Is Not A Country. Dipo’s insightful writing has been featured in The Guardian, The New York Times, Esquire and more. As a journalist and commentator, he explores the complexities of identity, geopolitics and Africa’s evolving relationship with the rest of the world.

Faced with tectonic shifts, Europe has been jolted into a monumental and unprecedented defence effort. For this to be a success, two elements are of vital importance: an effective chain of command and weapons systems with European 'design authority'.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) held a high-level ‘safe space’ strategy session on Wednesday 2 April, bringing together senior officials from across the European Commission for an in-depth exchange on the future of Europe’s energy and climate diplomacy. 

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) is delighted to welcome Herman Van Rompuy as a member of its Advisory Council, a distinguished group of leaders from the fields of politics, the arts, academia, and business.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics held an expert panel ‘Tech Sovereignty – What does it Mean?’ on Wednesday 12 March to discuss Artificial Intelligence and geopolitics.  It started with the launch of World Builders: Technology and The New Geopolitics by political philosopher, author and Portugal’s former Secretary of State for European Affairs, Bruno Maçães, followed by an expert panel on the topic with independent researcher, Ophélie Coelho and Professor of Political Arithmetic at the University of Amsterdam (UvA), Daniel Mügge.

Join us for the launch of World Builders: Technology and the New Geopolitics by Bruno Maçães, followed by an in-depth discussion on tech sovereignty featuring leading thinkers in geopolitics and technology.

‘A week is a long time in politics,’ British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is famously supposed to have said. The seven days between 12 and 19 February delivered some of the most dramatic politics for Europe’s leaders since the Russian invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Despite everything having been announced in advance, the pace of unfolding events still caught everyone off guard.

The revival of the US Monroe Doctrine through Donald Trump’s offer to ‘buy’ Greenland from Denmark or to take it by force has made the Arctic a focus for renewed geopolitical tension. In pushing back against Europe's presence in the region, Trump has argued that the United States’ sphere of influence should extend across the entire American continent, and used his address to Congress on 4 March 2025 to reassert that control of Greenland is in the interests of US security and the ‘freedom of the world’.

There is nothing quite like viewing one’s home in Europe – the foundational region of what we now call ‘the global West’ – at a remove. How we view world affairs is heavily contingent on our perspectives and from where we are looking at it.

Joanna Mytkowska is the director of the Museum of Modern Art in Warsaw (since 2007), art critic and historian. She is the co-founder of the famous Foksal Gallery Foundation and curated the Espace 315 space at the Pompidou Center in Paris and the Polish Pavilion at the Venice Art Biennale (2005).

Andrei Grachev is a Russian historian, political scientist, and journalist renowned for his expertise in international relations and his role as the last spokesperson for Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev.

Zelenskyy’s pride had made Trump fly off the handle before. It got the better of him at the White House once more, with fatal consequences. Not since the early days of the war has Ukraine’s future looked less certain.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) is delighted to welcome Poland as its eighth EU state member, increasing the Institute’s geographic representation in central and eastern Europe, alongside current member, Czechia.

The Paris Summit on Defence brought together eight national leaders, two EU presidents and the NATO secretary-general. Such improvised configurations should not be dismissed as mere set pieces of theatre: they are essential vehicles of political communication and serve to mobilize Europe’s agency in the face of existential threats.

In this first episode of Handing Over the Mic, we hand over the mic to Mohamed Mbougar Sarr, the acclaimed Senegalese writer and 2021 Prix Goncourt winner. In a wide-ranging conversation, he reflects on Europe's literature, politics and historical legacy through the lens of Senegal and Africa, offering new insights on identity, colonial memory and the power of storytelling.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics held a High-Level Breakfast Conversation on 18 February for the Brussels launch of the report ‘A New Transatlantic Bargain: The Case for Building a Strong European Pillar’ on behalf of the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School. It is one of a series of events across European capitals assessing Europe’s capacity to defend itself.

In the two short weeks since Trump’s second inauguration, the White House has despatched a flurry of executive orders, blasted allies and enemies with threatening rhetoric over tariffs and territorial takeovers, and zigzagged from domestic to international proclamations at such speed that Europe’s leaders can barely keep up with the spray-tanned septuagenarian’s diplomatic golf cart.

Over the last four years, energy and climate partnerships have become a central feature of the European Union’s diplomacy. From securing critical raw materials (CRM) to diversifying energy supplies, the EU is forging ties with countries worldwide to safeguard its economy, bolster its geopolitical position and accelerate the green transition.

From 2005 to 2021, Angela Merkel was the dominant political figure in one of the world’s greatest economic powers, the most important anchor of the European Union and a touchstone of liberal democracy. Her tenure as chancellor witnessed some of the most consequential events of the post-war period, from the financial crisis of 2008 to the Eurozone crisis in the early 2010s, to the migration crisis of the middle of that decade, to the COVID-19 pandemic that shattered lives and destabilized politics across the world.

Tune in to Handing Over the Mic, a new podcast series where influential voices from the Global South share their perspectives on Europe—its past, present and future.

In advance of today’s defence summit—at which the EU’s 27 heads of state and government will assemble, alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—Luuk van Middelaar sat down with Claude-France Arnould, former executive director of the European Defence Agency. They discussed the future of European defence, its industry, its governance, and the most urgent decisions leaders can take at this week’s summit to ramp up Europe’s production and investment and its command-and-control capability.

As America’s 47th president moves into the Oval Office, Europe needs a long-term approach to shoring up its defences against Russian aggression. In the short term, the options remain worryingly limited. Europe’s security will depend on a US president who views foreign territories as real estate that can be bought, traded and sold on. 

The security guarantees that the West provides to Ukraine will be a critical element in the settlement of the war with Russia, which Trump has suggested will take place soon after his inauguration. Although a discussion of how to guarantee Kyiv’s future security might seem premature, Europeans would do well to prepare for the possible cessation of hostilities by producing their own proposals for peace and security on the continent.

Spain joins the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics as a full member starting January 2025.

Rearmament, in the military sense, is the order of the day. However, confronted with History’s return, there is also a need to re-equip ourselves mentally and intellectually, to refill our linguistic toolbox so that we can make sense of unfolding events and situate ourselves in time.

By the spring of 2018, it was clear that Europe’s efforts to seduce, educate and impress the president had come to nothing. The harder its leaders pressed, the more abrasive he became. Trump looked at the world, as he put it, “from a real-estate perspective”, and because he was entirely unapologetic about who he was, he could neither be reasoned nor shamed into becoming someone else.

A map of Ukraine’s borders over the last one hundred years offers a lens through which to view the complex territorial history of Central and Eastern Europe.

At the start of the new year, leaders have an opportunity to capture and shape the geopolitical mood of the moment from their country’s point of view.

Picture Don Vito Corleone at his daughter’s wedding in The Godfather, showered with  gifts and the fawning gestures of his guests, consulting with his consigliere and family members, offering protection or help in exchange for loyalty, debt and future service. So appears Trump in Mar-a-Lago.

The expansion of BRICS, an informal political bloc, is indicative of the shifting dynamics of global power. This map, capturing three distinct stages of its development, spotlights the group’s evolving composition and its performance against the G7 countries.

Josep Borrell joined Luuk van Middelaar for a conversation at the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics for his final political event as the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

In what will be his last public appearance in the role before bowing out, Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, joins Luuk van Middelaar, Director of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, to reflect on five years as the EU's leading diplomat.

On Thursday 7 November, the leaders of forty-plus states from across Europe will meet in Budapest to discuss the continent’s security challenges. It offers the perfect opportunity for a collective stock-take of the US election result but there will be much more to consider at this strategic forum.

As the US presidential race enters its final stretch, two authors provide an in-depth analysis of what the outcome would mean for Europe. Hans Kribbe draws lessons from Donald Trump’s first term on how to engage with him. Damir Marusic provides clues as to the direction an as-yet untested Kamala Harris might take.

Pipelines have long shaped energy geopolitics, but our maps must soon chart a new type of power line, namely electricity cables.

Acknowledging new economic security risks, the EU is drafting a toolbox of policy instruments. This essay argues that we also need a strategic debate about the underlying goals and reasons. It identifies the three basic ways Europe can think about economic statecraft and proposes a way forward for the debate.

On 23 October 2024 the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics hosted an event to launch the essay ‘European economic statecraft in search of a future’ by BIG’s co-director Hans Kribbe. It is the first paper in a series on economic security.

When European explorers first ventured across the oceans in search of new lands and riches, they nonchalantly named the places and peoples they encountered. As the West’s global dominance recedes, so too does its semantic grip on the world.

Recognition of a new state is a political act. It sends a signal, not just to the state being added to the international pantheon, but also to friends and foes of the recognizer. This simple map of Palestine’s recognition as a state thus throws light on several key moments and relationships in recent political history.

The resurgence of the term ‘geopolitics’ is often understood as a ‘return’, or even the ‘revenge’, of power politics. Something that was supposed to have disappeared, we now realize had just been neglected, forgotten or even repressed.

The Paris Olympics took place during a tense geopolitical period at the heart of Europe. Russian and Belarusian delegations have been banned from this year’s Summer Games. The International Olympic Committee thus leveraged the long-existing connection between sports and political power, which this essay further explores.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) has hosted a ‘What Can Culture Do?’ roundtable, co-organized with the European Cultural Foundation (ECF). This joint session in Brussels forms part of a series of listening roundtables organized by ECF that are taking place across Europe.

The Brussels Institute for Geopolitics is pleased to announce that its Board held its first meeting today. The members of the Board have elected State Secretary Heiko Thoms as Chair and Ms Rita Faden as Vice-Chair. Composed of seven individuals who will serve a two-year term, the Board brings a wealth of experience and expertise to guide and oversee the institute's strategic development.

In an era marked by great power competition, states increasingly use energy as a strategic tool. This report sets out why and how Europe should revamp its energy diplomacy to navigate the green transition and to secure supplies.

This paper maps the tensions, dilemmas and daunting homework the EU faces, now that it has committed to a next round of enlargement.

The Institute’s first publication addresses the future of the European Political Community ahead of its second meeting in Moldova.